2022 NASCAR Playoffs at Kansas picks, odds, predictions: Model fades Christopher Bell at Hollywood Casino 400

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The 2022 Hollywood Casino 400 will take place on Sunday at Kansas Speedway with the green flag scheduled to drop at 3 p.m. ET. It’s the second race of the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs and Joey Logano sits atop the 2022 NASCAR standings after the first race of the postseason last week in Darlington. Logano won the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series championship and has a pair of wins on the season. He’s also a two-time winner at Kansas but he’s still listed as a 15-1 longshot in the 2022 Hollywood Casino 400 odds from Caesars Sportsbook. 

Denny Hamlin is a three-time winner on the 1.5-mile tri-oval and he’s listed as the 9-2 favorite in the NASCAR at Kansas odds while his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Kyle Busch (6-1), Martin Truex Jr. (8-1) and Christopher Bell (10-1) are all near the top of the board as well. Before scouring the 2022 Hollywood Casino 400 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Kansas predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Kansas picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure’s model nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then it called Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure’s model also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it nailed five of Larson’s wins during a historic season.

So far in 2022, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on Logano again when he returned 14-1 on his win in St. Louis. In early August, it was much higher on Kevin Harvick than his 17-1 odds implied and Harvick went on to capture the win at Michigan. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR at Kansas race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Hollywood Casino 400 leaderboard.

Top 2022 NASCAR at Kansas predictions

For the 2022 Hollywood Casino 400, the model is high on Ryan Blaney, even though he’s a 15-1 longshot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Kansas odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Despite ending the regular season sitting sixth in the NASCAR standings, Blaney was going to miss the postseason because there were 16 different full-time winners on the year.

However, Kurt Busch wasn’t medically cleared to race and had to forfeit his spot in the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs, allowing Blaney back into the field. Now Blaney has a second chance and he’s had some success in Kansas, with three top-five finishes and six top 10s in 15 Cup starts there. He’s in good shape to make the Round of 12 after one playoff race but a win would vault him back into title contention after running top three in the standings most of the year. See which other NASCAR underdogs to pick here.

And a massive shocker: Christopher Bell, one of the Vegas favorites at 10-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top 10. The 27-year-old won in New Hampshire late in the season to earn his way into the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs and is currently fourth in the NASCAR standings.

However, he hasn’t fared particularly well yet in his NASCAR Cup Series career on 1.5-mile ovals. He’s also been outside the top 10 in three of his last six starts and the model sees him struggling to live up to his price on Sunday. There are far better values in the 2022 Hollywood Casino 400 starting lineup. See which other favorites to avoid here.

How to make 2022 NASCAR Kansas picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Kansas odds of 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Hollywood Casino 400 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Kansas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 NASCAR at Kansas leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season. 

2022 Hollywood Casino 400 odds, field

See full NASCAR Kansas picks, best bets, and predictions here

Denny Hamlin 9-2
Kyle Busch 6-1
Kyle Larson 13-2
Chase Elliott 15-2
Martin Truex Jr. 8-1
Ross Chastain 10-1
Tyler Reddick 10-1
Christopher Bell 10-1
Kevin Harvick 14-1
Joey Logano 15-1
Ryan Blaney 15-1
William Byron 15-1
Bubba Wallace 18-1
Daniel Suarez 25-1
Ty Gibbs 25-1
Alex Bowman 30-1
Erik Jones 40-1
Austin Cindric 50-1
Chase Briscoe 60-1
Brad Keselowski 65-1
Austin Dillon 75-1
Ricky Stenhouse 125-1
Chris Buescher 150-1
Aric Almirola 150-1
Michael McDowell 300-1
Cole Custer 300-1
Justin Haley 500-1
Noah Gragson 500-1
Ty Dillon 750-1
Harrison Burton 750-1
Cody Ware 1000-1
Todd Gilliland 2000-1
Corey Lajoie 2000-1
BJ McLeod 2500-1
JJ Yeley 2500-1
Landon Cassill 2500-1