Online holiday sales in the U.S. are expected to climb 2.5% this year to $209.7 billion, according to a new report from Adobe Analytics. This year’s increase is up from 2021’s huge 8.6% gains over 2020 of $204.5 billion, Adobe added.
The new report also showed that consumers are expected to spend earlier this year, as a second Prime Day (Oct. 11-12) kicks off before the holiday season begins. The first Prime Day event drove record online sales for the retail industry overall, with $73.7 billion spent in July (up 20.9% over last year).
But despite Amazon’s second Prime Day this month, Cyber Monday is expected to remain this season’s – and year’s – biggest shopping day, driving a record $11.2 billion in spending, increasing 5.1% over last year. By comparison, Black Friday online sales are projected to grow by just 1% year-over-year at $9 billion, while Thanksgiving sales are set to fall to $5.1 billion, down 1% from 2021.
Adobe added that it expects Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) will bring in $34.8 billion overall, up 2.8% over last year. This represents a 16.3% share of the full season, down from 16.6% in 2021.
As for when consumers can grab the best discounts, Adobe said the biggest discounts are expected to hit between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 24) will be the best day to shop for electronics, while Black Friday (Nov. 25) will have the best deals for televisions. That Saturday (Nov. 26) will have the biggest discounts for toys, with the best deals for apparel and sporting goods arriving on Sunday (Nov. 27). Those looking to buy a computer or furniture should shop on Cyber Monday (Nov. 28), and appliances will see top discounts on Dec. 1.
“The shape of the holiday season will look different this year, with early discounting in October pulling up spend that would have occurred around Cyber Week,” said Patrick Brown, VP of growth marketing and insights at Adobe. “Even though we expect to see single-digit growth online this season, it is notable that consumers have already spent over $590 billion online this year at 8.9% growth, highlighting the resiliency of e-commerce demand.”
These numbers follow a similar report from Deloitte in September. In the report, the financial advisory firm’s retail and consumer products team forecasted that e-commerce sales will grow by 12.8% to 14.3% over last year this holiday season. This will likely result in e-commerce holiday sales reaching between $260 billion and $264 billion this season, which is up from the 8.4% gain totaling $231 billion in 2021, Deloitte said.