Our NFL betting expert offers his best betting picks and predictions for the matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Buffalo Bills, scheduled for Monday night in Buffalo at 7:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Bills looked strong in a season-opening victory over the defending champion Los Angeles Rams, while the Titans blew a 13-point halftime lead in a dismal loss to the New York Giants.
Bills vs. Titans predictions
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Bills vs. Titans picks and analysis
Tennessee has defeated Buffalo in back-to-back seasons but the rabid homefield atmosphere gives the Bills a strong edge on the primetime stage.
Buffalo appeared to be a weight class above the Rams in the opening night victory whereas the Titans stumbled in a Week 1 loss to the Giants.
Bills -10 (Caesars)
Bills quarterback Josh Allen feels he made too many mistakes when Buffalo let a seven-point fourth-quarter lead get away in the 34-31 road loss against the Titans last season.
This despite passing for 353 yards and three touchdowns against one interception.
Allen resides in the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks and he got to a strong start in the 31-10 road win over the Rams. He passed for 297 yards and three touchdowns and rushed for 56 yards and one score, marking the seventh time he has thrown for at least three scores and rushed for one in the same game.
The Buffalo defense signed a future Hall of Famer in the offseason in Von Miller and the eight-time Pro Bowl linebacker stood out in his team debut. He accumulated two sacks and three tackles for loss; it was the 21st time Miller has recorded at least two sacks in a game.
The high-volume atmosphere and a hot quarterback seeking revenge is too good to pass up.
Our Pick: Bills to cover -10
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Bills vs. Titans over 48.5 total points (FanDuel)
Derrick Henry was a force in Tennessee’s win last season as he rushed for 143 yards and three touchdowns. He ran for the decisive score with 3:05 left.
Henry rushed for 82 yards on 21 carries in the 21-20 loss to the Giants. He will need to top that amount against Buffalo, as the Titans will want to play keep-away with the ball.
Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill passed for 266 yards and two touchdowns in the opener, with 13 of his completions going for first downs. He is still adjusting to not having top target A.J. Brown, who was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles in the offseason, but the Titans moved the ball.
On the other side, safety Kevin Byard (12 tackles in Week 1) and the Tennessee defense will have their hands full. We see too much firepower from the Bills, and this final score going over the projection.
Our Pick: Over 48.5 total points
Josh Allen over 262.5 passing yards (Caesars)
Allen is considered one of the frontrunners for the MVP award and nothing about his Week 1 performance squashed such chatter. He’s a good bet this week in terms of over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-204) and over 262.5 passing yards (-117).
Top Bills target Stefon Diggs (over 69.5 receiving yards/-119) also is a favorable player to target. Five receptions against the Titans should get him over the projection.
Henry has a solid chance to go over 84.5 rushing yards (-117) and it helps that Bills standout defensive tackle Ed Oliver (ankle) will miss the game. Tannehill is priced better than Allen at +172 for over 1.5 passing TDs.
While Allen throwing two touchdowns seems likely, the payoff isn’t good.
Our Pick: Josh Allen over 262.5 passing yards
Bills vs. Titans odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
|Total Points 47.5||Team||Spread||Moneyline|
|Over -110||Titans||(+10) -110||+360|
|Under -110||Bills||(-10) -110||-480|