Giants vs. Saints odds, analysis and predictions for all Week 4 NFL games
The Saints dropped 48 points on the Giants in 2009 — and that’s the low from the teams’ past three meetings in New Orleans.
Add in 49 points in 2011 and 52 in 2015, and the Saints are averaging nearly 50 per game over that span against the Giants in the Superdome, which will be rocking at full capacity for the first time since before COVID-19, Hurricane Ida and a recent roof fire.
Sure, both future Hall of Fame quarterbacks from those three high-scoring games are retired, but does anyone doubt even the erratic Jameis Winston’s ability to put a big number on this Giants defense? He has thrown for seven touchdowns with zero interceptions in the Saints’ two wins.
Meanwhile, these Giants needed three games to total 50 points. No joke. They have averaged 17.7 points during coach Joe Judge’s 19-game tenure.
The Giants rank No. 21 in total defense and No. 16 in scoring defense, and have been especially ineffective at the end of halves (one stop in seven possessions). That’s how you lose two straight games on walk-off field goals. This is the Giants’ first game without every-snap linebacker Blake Martinez in the middle.
All signs point to the Saints scoring at a pace the Giants can’t match, even if it doesn’t take 50 to win it this time. The look-ahead point spread increased from six after the Giants’ latest dud last week, according to VSiN.
The pick: Saints, -7.5.
Tennessee Titans (-7) over NEW YORK JETS
The Titans have not scored fewer than 14 points since Week 6 of the 2019 season. Why is that relevant? Because 14 might be all it takes for the Titans to cover against the Jets, who have scored six total points the past two games. Get the lead early, pound Derrick Henry.
ATLANTA FALCONS (+1.5) over Washington Football Team
Sure, the magic of Taylor Heinicke wore off in his first road start last week at Buffalo. The bigger concern for Washington is its vaunted defense is underachieving. Atlanta isn’t Buffalo, but it’s only going to take two big plays by Kyle Pitts or Calvin Ridley to win a low-scoring game.
BUFFALO BILLS (-17) over Houston Texans
My rule of thumb: No point spread is too big when a top team faces a bottom team. The Bills’ past five regular-season wins (one loss in that span) are by an average of 29 points, so they know how to stretch a lead. Texans rookie Davis Mills is making his first road start.
Detroit Lions (+3) over CHICAGO BEARS
The Lions are under-talented but don’t quit, so they can get off the mat after losing on the longest field goal in NFL history. They are a difficult team to bet against — the line dropped from early in the week, according to VSiN — especially when Bears coach Matt Nagy’s play-calling is under fire.
DALLAS COWBOYS (-4.5) over Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are the biggest surprise of the undefeated teams, but now they are without Christian McCaffrey — and without hope of matching the Cowboys’ score-for-score. Just hope Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy’s laughable time management doesn’t wind up costing you a backdoor cover.
Indianapolis Colts (+2) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Jacoby Brissett left the Colts for the Dolphins in the offseason to be in this exact spot, when injury-prone Tua Tagovailoa’s backup quarterback was needed. But the winless Colts are more desperate. And familiar with Brissett’s weaknesses. Gut-check time arrived early for Carson Wentz.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+1.5) over Cleveland Browns
The Vikings saved their season by beating the Seahawks last week but always make one of the hardest teams to figure. This is a game the Browns will need more than just a dominant rushing attack and good defense to win. They need Baker Mayfield to make plays. Can he do it?
Kansas City Chiefs (-7) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
If you find anyone who expected the Chiefs to be last in the AFC West after three games, take their advice over mine. Until then, expect the Chiefs to take out a lot of frustration in coach Andy Reid’s return to Philadelphia. The Eagles tried (and failed) to win a track meet with the Cowboys. That’s a formula for embarrassment against the Chiefs.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-4) over Arizona Cardinals
The Rams are the best team in the NFL. And they are at home. But the Cardinals are undefeated, if somewhat unspectacularly. Sean McVay’s offense versus Kliff Kingsbury’s offense feels like the setting for a Big XII shootout, but the Rams have the better defense. That’s the difference.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3) over Seattle Seahawks
Just two years ago, these teams were battling for the NFC’s top seed. Now they might be No. 3 and No. 4 inside the loaded NFC West. The streaky Seahawks offense goes into too many dry spells. The defense isn’t very good, either.
Baltimore Ravens (+1) over DENVER BRONCOS
The undefeated Broncos haven’t faced even a mediocre opponent yet, but the defense is too good and too smart to be carved up by Lamar Jackon’s legs. He’ll make the big throws necessary, and the roller-coaster defense avoids a bumpy ride against Teddy Bridgewater.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
Both teams have the same quarterbacks as when they met in Super Bowl XLV in 2011. But the Packers are surging with two straight wins and MVP-caliber Aaron Rodgers, while the Steelers are reeling with two straight losses, Ben Roethlisberger’s regression and a potentially T.J. Watt-less defense. Follow the momentum.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
It will be awesome to see what quarterback-tormenter Bill Belichick has in store for Tom Brady after 20 years together. My expectation is the Buccaneers start slow, but they have a much better roster to help win a close one on a Brady-to-Rob Gronkowski touchdown. If you haven’t noticed, Brady usually gets his fairytale ending.
Las Vegas Raiders (+3) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
The Raiders are the first team ever to start 3-0 against three opponents (Ravens, Steelers and Dolphins) who had 10 wins or more last season. Home teams are 3-0 on “Monday Night Football” (and 3-0 against the spread), but the Chargers have one of the weakest home-field advantages.
Best bets: Packers, Titans, Lions.
Thursday: Jaguars (W)
Last week: 7-8 overall, 0-3 Best Bets.