Raiders vs. Chiefs odds, line, spread: Monday Night Football picks, predictions from NFL model on 140-105 roll

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will look to continue their strong start to the season when they take on the rival Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs (3-1), who came into Week 5 atop the AFC West, are 8-2 at home since the start of last season, including 1-0 this year. The Raiders (1-3), fourth in the division, have been respectable on the road the past two seasons, going 5-5, including 5-3 in 2021. Kansas City has won the last three meetings with Las Vegas and eight of the past nine.

The game from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is slated to start at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are 13th in total defense, giving up 329.5 yards per game, while the Raiders are 22nd, allowing 357. Kansas City is a 7-point favorite in the latest Raiders vs. Chiefs odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 51.5. Before locking in any Chiefs vs. Raiders picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 140-105 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Raiders vs. Chiefs and just locked in its picks and MNF predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Raiders vs. Chiefs:

  • Raiders vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs -7
  • Raiders vs. Chiefs over/under: 51.5 points 
  • Raiders vs. Chiefs money line: Raiders +278, Chiefs -355 
  • LV: Over has hit in last two Raiders games
  • KC: Chiefs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine Monday games 
  • Raiders vs. Chiefs picks: See picks here

Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City has a solid receiving corps, led by tight end Travis Kelce. Kelce leads the team with 26 receptions for 322 yards (12.4 average) and three touchdowns. He led the Chiefs with a season-high nine catches for 92 yards and a touchdown last week, and will look for his third game in a row with a receiving touchdown. Kelce is the only tight end in the NFL with 50 or more receiving yards in all four games this year. Kelce also has 100 or more receiving yards in three of his past four games against Las Vegas.

Wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a season-high 63 receiving yards last week. For the year, he has 13 receptions for 168 yards (12.9 average) with three explosive plays of 20 yards or more. He had 133 receiving yards and a touchdown catch in his only career game against the Raiders in 2019 when he played for the Green Bay Packers. In five seasons, including four in Green Bay, Valdes-Scantling has 136 receptions for 2,321 yards (17.1 average) and 13 TDs.

Why the Raiders can cover 

Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr has had some success against Kansas City in the past and is hoping to continue that trend. He will be looking for his fifth game in a row vs. the Chiefs with 250 or more passing yards, and has two or more TD passes and a 95 or better rating in three of his past four games against them. Carr also has had a lot of success in the spotlight. He has won four of his past five starts on Monday Night Football, and looks for his fourth game in a row on MNF with two or more touchdown passes.

Jacobs had a career-high 175 yards from scrimmage with 144 rushing and 31 receiving yards with two rushing TDs last week against Denver. It was his ninth-career game with two or more rushing touchdowns, the second-most in the NFL since 2019. Jacobs will look for his third game in a row with 95 or more yards from scrimmage. He has 516 yards from scrimmage (129 per game) and three rushing TDs in his past four games against AFC West opponents. Jacobs has four rushing touchdowns in four career games on Monday Night Football.

How to make Raiders vs. Chiefs picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total. In fact, it’s calling for 56 total points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model’s MNF picks at SportsLine. 

So who wins Chiefs vs. Raiders on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Raiders spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $7,000 on its NFL picks, and find out.