Steelers vs. Browns odds, line, spread: Thursday Night Football picks, predictions by NFL model on 139-102 run

The eyes of the NFL world turn to FirstEnergy Stadium on Thursday Night Football. The Cleveland Browns will welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers to town to open Week 3 of the NFL schedule. Cleveland and Pittsburgh both enter with 1-1 records after Week 2 losses. The Browns blew a 13-point lead in the final two minutes in a loss to the New York Jets last Sunday, with the Steelers falling by a 17-14 margin to the Patriots.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET in Cleveland. Caesars Sportsbook lists Cleveland as a 5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 38.5 in the latest Steelers vs. Browns odds. Before making any Browns vs. Steelers picks, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-102 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Steelers vs. Browns, and just locked in its Thursday Night Football picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Browns vs. Steelers:

  • Steelers vs. Browns spread: Browns -5
  • Steelers vs. Browns over/under: 38.5 points
  • Steelers vs. Browns money line: Browns -220, Steelers +180
  • PIT: Steelers are 9-10-1 against the spread in the last 20 games
  • CLE: Browns are 8-11 against the spread in the last 19 games
  • Steelers vs. Browns picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Why the Steelers can cover

Pittsburgh certainly misses T.J. Watt, as he is one of the best defensive players in the NFL. Still, Mike Tomlin’s squad remains stout on the defensive side, giving up only 18.5 points per game and only 17 points in the first game without Watt. The Steelers have five interceptions this season, second-most in the NFL, and Pittsburgh is creating a turnover on 25% of defensive possessions, a top-five mark in the league.

Opponents are managing only 4.0 yards per carry against Pittsburgh through two games, and the Steelers still have a top-tier difference-maker in Minkah Fitzpatrick. The two-time All-Pro defensive back has two interceptions, including one for a touchdown, and 20 combined tackles this season, and Fitzpatrick had 124 tackles in 2021. In addition, Cleveland’s offense is not terribly dynamic in the absence of Deshaun Watson. The Browns are below the NFL average in passing yards and passing yards per attempts, and Cleveland’s passing game projects to be pedestrian with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.

Why the Browns can cover

Cleveland’s defense is also talented, but the Browns are operating at a very high level on the offensive side this season. The Browns have only one turnover across two games, and Cleveland is leading the NFL in scoring on 52.4% of offensive possessions. Cleveland is putting up 2.71 points per possession, a top-five figure, and is averaging 28 points per game. Beyond the scoreboard, the Browns are in the top 10 of the league with 380 total yards per game, and Cleveland is elite on the ground. 

The Browns are averaging more than 200 rushing yards per game, generating 5.3 yards per carry and producing four rushing touchdowns. Cleveland is in the top three of the league with 52 first downs and is in the top five in third down efficiency, moving the chains on 53.3% of occasions. With Nick Chubb anchoring the running game and the addition of Amari Cooper on the outside, the Browns could maintain strong efficiency, even with Deshaun Watson suspended and Jacoby Brissett running the offense.

How to make Browns vs. Steelers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 42 combined points scored. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s Steelers vs. Browns picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Steelers vs. Browns on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Browns vs. Steelers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that’s 139-102 on NFL picks, and find out.